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UK DATA: BOE DMP survey and final PMI both due at 9:30BST

UK DATA
CEEMEAData BulletBulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • The DMP data has become one of the most watched released from MPC members looking at firms’ expectations for hiring, wage growth and price growth.
  • Labour market data has held up well, but growth is showing signs that it is beginning to slow (particularly in the EU - where almost half of UK exports are destined for). The question for the MPC will be whether the labour market data will hold up in the face of slowing growth, particularly as there is increasing speculation that the Budget on 30 October may include an increase in employer national insurance contributions (either outright or making pension contributions eligible for NIC payments).
  • There will hence be even more focus on the labour market outlook in the DMP data going forward in our view, not just on the wage / price growth expectations.
  • This is increasingly the case in light of Bailey's comments earlier this morning (see earlier bullets for coverage of that) and ahead of Pill's speech tomorrow morning.
  • Also at 9:30BST, the final print of the services PMI will be released - but other than a headline reaction if there is a big miss, we think that overall today there should be more focus on the DMP data.
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  • The DMP data has become one of the most watched released from MPC members looking at firms’ expectations for hiring, wage growth and price growth.
  • Labour market data has held up well, but growth is showing signs that it is beginning to slow (particularly in the EU - where almost half of UK exports are destined for). The question for the MPC will be whether the labour market data will hold up in the face of slowing growth, particularly as there is increasing speculation that the Budget on 30 October may include an increase in employer national insurance contributions (either outright or making pension contributions eligible for NIC payments).
  • There will hence be even more focus on the labour market outlook in the DMP data going forward in our view, not just on the wage / price growth expectations.
  • This is increasingly the case in light of Bailey's comments earlier this morning (see earlier bullets for coverage of that) and ahead of Pill's speech tomorrow morning.
  • Also at 9:30BST, the final print of the services PMI will be released - but other than a headline reaction if there is a big miss, we think that overall today there should be more focus on the DMP data.