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UK DATA: Borrowing higher than expected; CGNCR GBP16.8bn higher YTD vs OBR fcast

UK DATA
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On the public finances, that's another month where both CGNCR and PSNBex were higher than OBR forecasts.

  • CGNCR ex is now running at GBP98.1bln YTD (OBR GBP81.3bln). This is the metric that is most important for the gilt remit and is running GBP16.8bln higher through the first 5 months of the fiscal year than forecast.
  • We haven't got confirmation from the OBR, but we assume these numbers will form the baseline forecasts used for the Budget (next month's release will likely be beyond the data cutoff).
  • PRNBex at GBP64.1bln YTD (OBR GBP57.8bln) is also higher-than-expected but to a much smaller extent.
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On the public finances, that's another month where both CGNCR and PSNBex were higher than OBR forecasts.

  • CGNCR ex is now running at GBP98.1bln YTD (OBR GBP81.3bln). This is the metric that is most important for the gilt remit and is running GBP16.8bln higher through the first 5 months of the fiscal year than forecast.
  • We haven't got confirmation from the OBR, but we assume these numbers will form the baseline forecasts used for the Budget (next month's release will likely be beyond the data cutoff).
  • PRNBex at GBP64.1bln YTD (OBR GBP57.8bln) is also higher-than-expected but to a much smaller extent.