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UK DATA: Retail Sales due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
CEEMEAData BulletBulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

Due to the volatile nature of this release, we don't place much weight on retail sales (and we don't think the MPC does either), although in combination with other data it will give a holistic outlook for UK growth going forward.

  • Following a rise (albeit softer than expected) in July retail sales volumes, retail sales are expected to increase again in August, a month in which the UK recorded near average rainfall, temperatures above average and lower petrol prices.
  • The Bloomberg consensus sees retail sales excluding fuel increase 0.5% M/M (vs 0.7% prior), although analyst estimates have a slight downward skew ranging between 0.1% and 0.9%. Retail sales including fuel is expected to increase marginally by 0.3% M/M (vs 0.5% prior) with most analyst estimates between 0.1% to 0.6%.
  • On an annual basis, ex fuel retail sales consensus looks for an increase of 1.1% Y/Y (vs 1.4% prior) and for inc fuel retail sales to rise 1.3%  (vs 1.4% in July).
  • Survey data including the CBI and BRC points to retail sales rising relative to July, albeit still subdued as the BRC release emphasised many were waiting for the Chancellor's Autumn budget before finalising their investment strategies and therefore purchases.
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Due to the volatile nature of this release, we don't place much weight on retail sales (and we don't think the MPC does either), although in combination with other data it will give a holistic outlook for UK growth going forward.

  • Following a rise (albeit softer than expected) in July retail sales volumes, retail sales are expected to increase again in August, a month in which the UK recorded near average rainfall, temperatures above average and lower petrol prices.
  • The Bloomberg consensus sees retail sales excluding fuel increase 0.5% M/M (vs 0.7% prior), although analyst estimates have a slight downward skew ranging between 0.1% and 0.9%. Retail sales including fuel is expected to increase marginally by 0.3% M/M (vs 0.5% prior) with most analyst estimates between 0.1% to 0.6%.
  • On an annual basis, ex fuel retail sales consensus looks for an increase of 1.1% Y/Y (vs 1.4% prior) and for inc fuel retail sales to rise 1.3%  (vs 1.4% in July).
  • Survey data including the CBI and BRC points to retail sales rising relative to July, albeit still subdued as the BRC release emphasised many were waiting for the Chancellor's Autumn budget before finalising their investment strategies and therefore purchases.