UK: First Post-Election Call Polling Shows Labour Retaining Wide Lead

In the first two opinion polls carried out either on the day PM Rishi Sunak announced a 4 July general election or afterwards, the main opposition centre-left Labour party has retained its sizeable lead that continues to indicate that it will win a majority in the House of Commons. 

• Techne - Fieldwork 22-23 May - Labour 45% (+1), Conservative 19% (-2), Reform UK 14% (+2), Liberal Democrat 12% (=), Greens 5% (-1), 1,643 respondents.
• More in Common - Fieldwork 22-23 May - Labour 44% (+1), Conservatives 27% (=), Reform UK 10% (-1), Liberal Democrat 9% (=), Greens 5% (-1), 2,008 respondents
• Were these polls reflected in the final vote share, elections prediction site Electoral Calculus shows Labour winning huge majorities of between 240 (More in Common) and 388 (Techne) seats. To date the largest non-coalition majority in the House of Commons came in the 1832 election, when the Whigs recorded a 225-seat majority against the Tories (resuling the the party disbanding and re-forming as the Conservative Party). 
• Data from Polymarket shows that among bettors the most favoured seat total 'window' for Labour is +450 seats, with a 30% implied probability. Joint second with at 15% implied probability is the 350-374 and 425-449 windows. The joint lowest with 10% implied probabilities are <325 and 325-349 seats. Labour's highest-ever seat total was 418 in 1997 under Tony Blair. At present Labour holds 205 seats. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Avg.