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UK inflation expectations remain unconcerning

UK DATA
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • UK inflation expectations down to 3.0% from 3.3% for the coming year, unchanged at 2.8% for the month after that and in 5-years time down to 3.1% from 3.2%.
  • Looking more into the Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey, the 12-month ahead fall to 3.0% has fallen from a peak of 4.9% in August 2022 (the 2015-2019 average was 2.7%)
  • For the 12-months after that we have been steady at 2.8% for 3 consecutive quarters now (we were at 2.6% in May 2023 however). Again this is down from the peak (3.4% seen in both May 2022 and November 2022). This is 0.2ppt above the 2015-2019 average of 2.6%.
  • In terms of the long-run (i.e. 5-years), the current level of 3.1% is 0.3ppt above the 2015-2019 average (and down from a peak of 3.5% in May 2022 but higher than the recent trough of 2.9% seen in August 2023).
  • Most MPC members aren't really too concerned about inflation expectations at present so this shouldn't really move the market too much.

The full survey is available here.

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  • UK inflation expectations down to 3.0% from 3.3% for the coming year, unchanged at 2.8% for the month after that and in 5-years time down to 3.1% from 3.2%.
  • Looking more into the Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey, the 12-month ahead fall to 3.0% has fallen from a peak of 4.9% in August 2022 (the 2015-2019 average was 2.7%)
  • For the 12-months after that we have been steady at 2.8% for 3 consecutive quarters now (we were at 2.6% in May 2023 however). Again this is down from the peak (3.4% seen in both May 2022 and November 2022). This is 0.2ppt above the 2015-2019 average of 2.6%.
  • In terms of the long-run (i.e. 5-years), the current level of 3.1% is 0.3ppt above the 2015-2019 average (and down from a peak of 3.5% in May 2022 but higher than the recent trough of 2.9% seen in August 2023).
  • Most MPC members aren't really too concerned about inflation expectations at present so this shouldn't really move the market too much.

The full survey is available here.