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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
- We look ahead to tomorrow's UK CPI print and review this morning's (partial) labour market report.
- The Bank of England’s MPR forecast headline CPI to fall to 4.76%Y/Y in October while the median from the previews that we have read looks for 4.7%Y/Y (from 6.65%Y/Y in September).
- We summarise the views of almost 20 sellside inflation previews and 10 sellside labour market reviews.
- The MNI Markets team still thinks that there are two-way risks to the market from the inflation print tomorrow. A higher-than-expected print could see the small probability of a near-term hike climb (but probably only if we saw services come in higher than the Bank of England forecast, not just higher than the sellside consensus).
- A lower-than-expected print would likely mean more question marks are placed over the Bankof England’s inflation forecasts – they would immediately look too high and open up the possibility of an earlier rate cut next year (the first cut is now around 86% priced in by June 2024 with just under a 50/50 probability of a May cut). A soft print tomorrow could see an even higher probability of a May 2024 cut.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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