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UK Jobs Market Robust, Unlikely to Shift BOE

UK DATA
MNI (London)


  • The latest UK labour market data showed a continuation in the trend of slowing vacancies, whilst employment held steady at 3.7%. Tentative signs that wages may have have peaked were evident.
  • A strong uptick in payrolled employees of +98k was recorded in February, after a substantial downwards revision to +42k (from 102k) in January. This, alongside the employment rate edging up 0.1pp and inactivity down 0.2pp on the quarter implies an increase in returns to the workforce, namely 16-24 year-olds, students and retirees according to the ONS.
  • Meanwhile job vacancies cooled by 51k in the three months to February, but remain a robust 328k above pre-Covid levels.
  • Nominal wages rose +5.7% in January, in line with forecasts and 0.3pp slower than in December. Excluding bonuses earnings eased by 0.2pp to +6.5% y/y, 0.1pp weaker than consensus expectations.
  • There is little in the data to change views on the Bank of England's MPC. Doves will see signs of the labour market at least starting to stabilise, while the hawks will point to continued wages strength.

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