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UK Monthly GDP due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • UK monthly activity data including GDP / IP / index of services / construction / trade is due for release at 7:00BST. The data refers to the month of August.
  • This will be the last activity data that the Bank of England will see before the November MPC meeting (and hence the last data to be used in the forecasts in the MPR).
  • Markets are already fully pricing a hike by December but there is still focus on the fact that the economy has not yet reached its pre-Covid levels. Given market pricing it will be hard to see large moves in sterling markets on a better-than-expected print today (unless it is a huge positive surprise). We are more likely to see a negative surprise moderate some of the optimism currently priced into markets.
  • Hence, a downside print is likely to be more impactful to markets than a positive surprise.
  • The July data was softer than expected, rising 0.1%M/M with no growth in either services or manufacturing, with the pingdemic constraining growth. Consensus expects manufacturing production to remain flat for a second month in August, held back by supply constraints but looks for services to grow by 0.6%M/M.
  • Our data team notes that retail sales declined by 0.9% in August, extending a 2.8% plunge in July. While sales comprise less than 6% of gross domestic product, the fall may provide some insight into sentiment at the end of the third quarter. However, some of the weakness in retail sales could possibly have been due to some products being unavailable (which could still hit GDP).
  • Regarding manufacturing, our data team also nots that automobile production declining by 30% in August, according to the SMMT. However the production PMI declined only modestly in August, to 60.3 from 60.4 in July.
DataHomepageData BulletBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletUKMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
DataHomepageData BulletBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletUKMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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