UK Preliminary Data Forecasts: Jul BOE Money and Credit Data

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - Housing activity in the UK has softened somewhat in recent

months as household's grapple with rising inflation, subdued wage growth and an

uncertain business landscape. In June, mortgage approvals subsequently fell to a

nine-month low of 64,700.

     Casting our attention to July, analysts foresee a pickup to 65,300. This is

in line with data published by UK Finance (formally the BBA) earlier this week,

who reported approvals up to 41,600 in July versus 40,400 in June. 

     After rising to stg4.1bn in June, the highest outcome since the financial

crisis since the crisis, analysts saw this retreating to stg3.5bn in July. The

latest Bank of England Agent's survey suggested banks were looking to restrict

supply of secured credit over the next quarter for the first time in three

years.   

     Elsewhere, unsecured credit lending levels, under the scrutiny of the Bank

of England, are expected to come in in line with levels set in recent months.   

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                             Jul           Jul        Jul

                             BOE           BOE        BOE

                    Net Consumer  Net Mortgage   Mortgage

                          Credit       Lending  Approvals

                         % 3m/3m        stg bn      '000s

Date Out                  30-Aug        30-Aug     30-Aug

Median                       1.5           3.5       65.3

Forecast High                1.5           3.8       66.5

Forecast Low                 1.2           3.0       64.5

Standard Deviation           0.2           0.4        0.9

Count                          4             3          4

Prior                        1.5           4.1       64.7

Capital Economics            1.2           N/A       66.5

Investec                     1.5           3.5       65.5

Nomura                       1.5           3.0       65.0

Oxford Economics             1.5           3.8       64.5

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]