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UK Preliminary Data Forecasts: July UK Retail Sales Data

MNI (London)
By Jamie Satchithanantham
     LONDON (MNI) - UK retail sales grew by 0.6% m/m in June, aided by the
month's warm weather, which meant on the quarter sales volumes were up 1.5%,
having fell 1.4% in the first quarter of the year.
     Between May and June, household good stores recorded strong growth in
sales, up 3.3% m/m, offsetting the 0.5% m/m drop in food sales. 
     Compared to the same month a year ago, clothing sales volumes were up a
solid 6.2% y/y in June while non-store retailing items were up 17.6% y/y.    
     Analysts foresee growth in sales volumes moderating in July, with a median
forecast of 0.3% m/m pencilled in. Excluding fuel, month-on-month growth is
expected to come in flat.  
     On the year, growth looks destined to come in under the level set a month
ago, with all 4 analysts who cast a forecast expecting an outturn well below the
2.9% y/y recorded in June. The MNI median for year-over-year growth is 1.4%.   
------------------------------------------------------------
                             Jul           Jul           Jul
                    Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales
                    Incl. Petrol  Incl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol
                           % M/M         % Y/Y         % M/M
Date Out                  18-Aug        18-Aug        18-Aug
Median                       0.3           1.4           0.0
Forecast High                0.8           2.0           0.3
Forecast Low                 0.0           1.2          -0.3
Standard Deviation           0.3           0.4           0.3
Count                          5             4             3
Prior                        0.6           2.9           0.9
Capital Economics            0.8           2.0           N/A
Credit Suisse                N/A           N/A          -0.3
Commerzbank                  0.6           N/A           N/A
Investec                     0.3           1.5           0.3
Nomura                       N/A           N/A           0.0
Oxford Economics             0.1           1.2           N/A
Scotia                       0.0           1.3           N/A
     This survey will be updated Monday August 14. 
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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