UK Preliminary Data Forecasts: June UK Labour Market Data

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - Falling to 4.5% in May, the UK unemployment rate reached a

level not seen since 1975. A month later this feat could be set to be beaten,

with the five of the eight analysts polled by MNI thus far expecting the rate to

have slipped another 0.1pp to 4.4% in June.

     This further suggests spare capacity within the labour market is

evaporating. That should, in theory, lead to to inflationary pressure on the

wage front though this has been absent with real earnings breaching sub-zero

territory instead.

     This lack of movement is expected to have carried forward into June.

Average wage growth, on both total and ex-bonus terms, are forecast to come in

unmoved from the level set in May. That is, for 1.8% 3m y/y growth in total

earnings and 2.0% 3m y/y growth in earnings ex-bonuses.

---------------------------------------------------------------

                                                            Jun

                           Jun                Jun           ILO

                    Avg Weekly         Avg Weekly  Unemployment

                      Earnings  Earnings ex-Bonus          rate

                      3m % YoY           3m % YoY          3m %

Date Out                16-Aug             16-Aug        16-Aug

Median                     1.8                2.0           4.4

Forecast High              1.9                2.0           4.5

Forecast Low               1.7                1.9           4.4

Standard Deviation         0.1                0.1           0.1

Count                        7                  7             8

Prior                      1.8                2.0           4.5

Capital Economics          1.8                2.0           4.5

Credit Suisse              N/A                2.0           4.4

Commerzbank                1.9                N/A           4.5

Investec                   1.8                2.0           4.4

Nomura                     1.8                1.9           4.4

Oxford Economics           1.7                1.9           4.4

RBC                        1.8                1.9           4.5

Scotia                     1.7                2.0           4.4

     This survey will be updated Monday August 14. 

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

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