UK Preliminary Data Forecasts: June UK Trade Data

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - Between April and May the UK's total trade deficit widened

to stg3.1bn, courtesy of a 2.7% m/m rise in imports (primarily goods). The

deficit stood at stg2.1bn in April and stg3.7bn in March.

     True to this up-and-down sequence, the deficit is expected to have narrowed

in June in the eyes of analysts, down to stg2.5bn. The trade in goods deficit is

also expected to come in smaller at stg11.2bn in June.    

------------------------------------------

                              Jun      Jun

                            Total  Visible

                    Trade balance    Trade

                           stg bn   stg bn

Date Out                   10-Aug   10-Aug

Median                       -2.5    -11.2

Forecast High                -2.1    -10.5

Forecast Low                 -2.7    -11.5

Standard Deviation            0.2      0.4

Count                           5        5

Prior                        -3.1    -11.9

Capital Economics            -2.4    -11.2

Investec                     -2.1    -10.7

Lloyds TSB                   -2.5    -10.5

Nomura                        N/A    -11.2

Oxford Economics             -2.7    -11.5

Standard Chartered           -2.5      N/A

     Since the vote to leave the European Union last year and the associated

slide in sterling exports have, in line with expectations, fared well. Absent,

however, has been any material slowing in import flows, thus keeping the trade

deficit largely in tact.

     Core export volumes were up 7.2% 3m y/y in May, the highest since late

2015, while core import volumes have also held up well, up 6.3% 3m y/y.

     With greater evidence -- further erosion of UK real wage growth, falling

consumer confidence, a softer housing market activity and reduced demand for

cars -- pointing towards households households reigning in consumption we could

see import volumes being to edge lower in June.

     Alongside this, amid stronger global conditions, primarily with Europe (the

UK's biggest trading partner) in much better shape, there is scope for export

growth to grow further and for the balance of trade to improve.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]