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UK DATA: UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex YTD Exceeds OBR Forecast

UK DATA
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UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (ex public sector banks) between April and November 2024 was higher than the OBR forecast at GBP113.2bln (vs OBR forecast of 111.2bln). However, this was due to prior months' revisions as the November monthly reading was below the OBR expectation at GBP11.2bln (vs OBR forecast of 12.4bln and Bloomberg consensus of 13.6bln).

  • The higher than anticipated YTD print reflects upward revisions to borrowing by non-central government groups including local authorities and public corporations, with the former seeing an upward revision in borrowing for the months between April and October 2024 of GBP2.6bln, taking year-to-date local authority net borrowing to GBP2.2bln (vs OBR forecast of -1.4bln).
  • Central government net borrowing came in below forecast at GBP128.4bln year-to-date (vs 132.6bln forecast).
  • Looking within central government, expenditure was lower than forecast at GBP779.7bln year-to-date (vs OBR forecast 786.8bln), whilst receipts were lower than expected as well at GBP651.2bln (vs OBR forecast of 654.2bln).
    • Within expenditure the lower than expected reading was driven by interest payments increasing only GBP3.0bln in November (vs OBR November forecast of GBP5.5bln) bringing the year-to-date payments to GBP56.7bln (vs OBR forecast of 59.2bln) - note these forecasts incorporate outturned data up to August when the BOE began its rate cutting cycle.
    • Receipts were marginally lower than expected but both VAT and stamp duty receipts were above expectations. VAT in November was recorded at GBP17.0bln (vs OBR forecast of 14.5bln), whilst stamp duty receipts were GBP0.4bln above forecast at GBP1.8bln - likely to be due to some sales brought forward ahead of Budget as well as first time buyers pushing to get their first purchases before stamp duty relief is removed in April 2025.
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UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (ex public sector banks) between April and November 2024 was higher than the OBR forecast at GBP113.2bln (vs OBR forecast of 111.2bln). However, this was due to prior months' revisions as the November monthly reading was below the OBR expectation at GBP11.2bln (vs OBR forecast of 12.4bln and Bloomberg consensus of 13.6bln).

  • The higher than anticipated YTD print reflects upward revisions to borrowing by non-central government groups including local authorities and public corporations, with the former seeing an upward revision in borrowing for the months between April and October 2024 of GBP2.6bln, taking year-to-date local authority net borrowing to GBP2.2bln (vs OBR forecast of -1.4bln).
  • Central government net borrowing came in below forecast at GBP128.4bln year-to-date (vs 132.6bln forecast).
  • Looking within central government, expenditure was lower than forecast at GBP779.7bln year-to-date (vs OBR forecast 786.8bln), whilst receipts were lower than expected as well at GBP651.2bln (vs OBR forecast of 654.2bln).
    • Within expenditure the lower than expected reading was driven by interest payments increasing only GBP3.0bln in November (vs OBR November forecast of GBP5.5bln) bringing the year-to-date payments to GBP56.7bln (vs OBR forecast of 59.2bln) - note these forecasts incorporate outturned data up to August when the BOE began its rate cutting cycle.
    • Receipts were marginally lower than expected but both VAT and stamp duty receipts were above expectations. VAT in November was recorded at GBP17.0bln (vs OBR forecast of 14.5bln), whilst stamp duty receipts were GBP0.4bln above forecast at GBP1.8bln - likely to be due to some sales brought forward ahead of Budget as well as first time buyers pushing to get their first purchases before stamp duty relief is removed in April 2025.
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