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UK DATA: UK Q4 GDP First Estimate and Monthly Dec Activity Data Due 07:00GMT

UK DATA
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  • Consensus expects monthly GDP to rise 0.1% M/M following +0.1% in Nov and -0.1% in Oct.
  • The small rise in monthly GDP is expected to be broad-based with all three main subcomponents anticipated to rise in December, in particular, services is expected to increase 0.1% M/M for another month despite falling retail sales in December, Industrial production and construction are both expected to increase 0.2% M/M (vs -0.4% and 0.4% priors).Whilst December was relatively warm, rainfall was above average according to the Met Office, which places downside risk to construction output.
  • On a quarterly basis, consensus expects GDP to fall -0.1%, in line with the BOE's latest projection. However, unless we see downward revisions to earlier months, the monthly and quarterly consensus numbers don’t necessarily add up.
  • Assuming no revisions to November and October monthly data, we would need a December GDP print in the range of -0.23% and 0.07% M/M for a Q4 GDP at -0.1% Q/Q. Consensus currently looks for 0.1%M/M – so only a very soft 0.1%M/M print is consistent with the quarterly print. Note that, a monthly print between 0.07% and 0.37% would result in a flat Q/Q GDP print, while a print above 0.37% M/M would get a Q4 quarterly reading of 0.1% Q/Q or higher.
  • Looking ahead, GDP growth is expected to remain sluggish, with the BOE projection for 2025 being downgraded to 0.75%.
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  • Consensus expects monthly GDP to rise 0.1% M/M following +0.1% in Nov and -0.1% in Oct.
  • The small rise in monthly GDP is expected to be broad-based with all three main subcomponents anticipated to rise in December, in particular, services is expected to increase 0.1% M/M for another month despite falling retail sales in December, Industrial production and construction are both expected to increase 0.2% M/M (vs -0.4% and 0.4% priors).Whilst December was relatively warm, rainfall was above average according to the Met Office, which places downside risk to construction output.
  • On a quarterly basis, consensus expects GDP to fall -0.1%, in line with the BOE's latest projection. However, unless we see downward revisions to earlier months, the monthly and quarterly consensus numbers don’t necessarily add up.
  • Assuming no revisions to November and October monthly data, we would need a December GDP print in the range of -0.23% and 0.07% M/M for a Q4 GDP at -0.1% Q/Q. Consensus currently looks for 0.1%M/M – so only a very soft 0.1%M/M print is consistent with the quarterly print. Note that, a monthly print between 0.07% and 0.37% would result in a flat Q/Q GDP print, while a print above 0.37% M/M would get a Q4 quarterly reading of 0.1% Q/Q or higher.
  • Looking ahead, GDP growth is expected to remain sluggish, with the BOE projection for 2025 being downgraded to 0.75%.