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UK retail sales softer than expected M/M but contributes positive Q/Q due to base effects

UK DATA
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  • UK retail sales is estimated to contribute +0.09ppt to Q1 GDP after it rose 1.9%Q/Q (although this was largely driven by soft sales around the Christmas period rather than a large increase in sales this quarter).
  • Looking at the details of the monthly release, the biggest downside contributor was department store sales (down 3.8%M/M) with "non-store retailing" down 1.5%M/M and food stores sales down -0.7%M/M. The ONS notes that "retailers suggesting that increased prices were affecting consumer spending habits."
  • Partially offsetting these falls, fuel sales were the biggest upside drive (up 3.2%M/M), household goods stores, "other non-food stores" and clothing stores all saw positive monthly growth with the ONS citing that this was consistent with increased footfall metrics in the month.
  • As we noted ahead of the release, we don't think that this release will have much impact (if any) on the MPC's upcoming decisions.
  • EURGBP initially moved from around 0.8565 to just below 0.8570, a tiny move that has fully retraced already.
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  • UK retail sales is estimated to contribute +0.09ppt to Q1 GDP after it rose 1.9%Q/Q (although this was largely driven by soft sales around the Christmas period rather than a large increase in sales this quarter).
  • Looking at the details of the monthly release, the biggest downside contributor was department store sales (down 3.8%M/M) with "non-store retailing" down 1.5%M/M and food stores sales down -0.7%M/M. The ONS notes that "retailers suggesting that increased prices were affecting consumer spending habits."
  • Partially offsetting these falls, fuel sales were the biggest upside drive (up 3.2%M/M), household goods stores, "other non-food stores" and clothing stores all saw positive monthly growth with the ONS citing that this was consistent with increased footfall metrics in the month.
  • As we noted ahead of the release, we don't think that this release will have much impact (if any) on the MPC's upcoming decisions.
  • EURGBP initially moved from around 0.8565 to just below 0.8570, a tiny move that has fully retraced already.