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Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Refineries Could Boost Crude Exports by 200-250kbpd

OIL

The reduction in Russian refining rates due to the latest Ukrainian drone attacks could raise Russian seaborne crude flows by 200-250kbpd to 3.7-3.8mbpd according to Kpler estimates, however, Russia may face difficulties to sell additional crude amid latest US sanctions.

  • Estimates from other sources such as Sergei Vakulenko, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, consultancy Yakov and Partners and FGE put the increase at around 600kbpd, if Russia decided to divert all crude for exports that it cannot process.
  • Selling those volumes on short notice “will not be easy and will likely require aggressive discounting,” particularly since tougher sanctions enforcement has already reduced the international appeal of Russian oil, FGE said earlier this week.
  • In addition, Russia is facing difficulties selling its crude to India after India’s Reliance said it will not buy Russian oil loaded on tankers operated by Sovcomflot after the latest US sanctions.
  • More Indian refiners are planning to not use Sovcomflot vessels, sources told Bloomberg.

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