Ukrainian Military Operation In Kursk Enters Fourth Day

A Ukrainian military incursion into Russian territory remains active today, with fighting continuing around the key gas hub at Sudzha in the Kursk region.

• Fitch wrote this morning that the incursion, “does not have material implications for Europe’s gas supply,” noting market volatility around military operations in Sudzha.
• Yaroslav Trofimov at the Wall Street Journal notes, “Ukrainian forces continue to hold the city of Sudhza and operate in a large swath of Kursk region,” with Ukrainian forces extending as far as 35kms into Russian territory, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
• Bloomberg reports the governor of the Russian Lipetsk region, around 500km from the Ukrainian border, ordered the evacuation of several towns following a Ukrainian drone strike on a military airfield that houses a fleet of Russian warplanes, although it is unclear if the strike caused significant damage.
• Military strategist Mick Ryan notedon X yesterday that the incursion, “constitutes the biggest advance by any side in this war since late 2022,” and is likely designed to, “seiz[e] ground and destro[y] Russian ground and aerial forces,” and “reconsider their force dispositions elsewhere on the front line.”
• The UK Ministry of Defence said in a statement that Russia is achieving “further tactical advances with operations” along multiple frontlines in central Donetsk, suggesting the Kursk incursion hasn’t significantly decreased the intensity of fighting elsewhere on the front.
• Interfax reports, per Russian MOD: "Reserves transferred to Kursk region."
• Oliver Carroll at the Economist reports that a Russian attack Kostyantinyvka, Donetsk, appearing to target civilians, may be a retaliatory strike for Kursk. Should the Kursk operation continue, further Russian strikes may be likely.