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ULC Growth Surges Further In Q1

CANADA DATA
  • The labor productivity report showed details the BOC wouldn’t have wanted to see just hours before its decision at 1000ET with markets pricing a 50/50 decision.
  • Declines in labor productivity accelerated in Q1 to -0.6% non-annualized from -0.5% in Q4 for its fastest quarterly contraction since 3Q21, whilst hourly compensation increased +0.7% Q/Q. There isn't a consensus but Scotia had looked for -0.4% for productivity.
  • The combination saw Unit Labor Costs rise another 1.27% Q/Q in Q1 - or 5.2% annualized - after 1.03% in Q4 (revised down from 1.10%) for its strongest since 2Q22.
  • The April MPR noted that “Over time, monetary policy tightening is anticipated to reduce demand for services, soften employment and better align growth in labour costs with productivity”, but there wasn’t any sign of the latter in Q1 at least.

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