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US DATA: U.Mich Inflation Expectations Surge, 5-10Y Highest Since 2008

US DATA
USEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America

U.Mich consumer inflation expectations surprisingly jumped in the preliminary January report. Being a preliminary report it can still be revised but it’s nevertheless a notable shift higher with the long-term measure seeing a particularly sharp increase to its highest since 2008. The below includes snippets from the press release. 

  • 1Y ahead: 3.3% (cons 2.8%) in Jan after 2.8% in Dec.
  • "The current reading is the highest since May 2024 and is above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.”
  • 5-10Y ahead: 3.3% (cons 3.0) in Jan after 3.0% in Dec.
  • “This is only the third time in the last four years that long-run expectations have exhibited such a large one-month change.”
  • “For both the short and long run, inflation expectations rose across multiple demographic groups, with particularly strong increases among lower-income consumers and Independents."
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U.Mich consumer inflation expectations surprisingly jumped in the preliminary January report. Being a preliminary report it can still be revised but it’s nevertheless a notable shift higher with the long-term measure seeing a particularly sharp increase to its highest since 2008. The below includes snippets from the press release. 

  • 1Y ahead: 3.3% (cons 2.8%) in Jan after 2.8% in Dec.
  • "The current reading is the highest since May 2024 and is above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.”
  • 5-10Y ahead: 3.3% (cons 3.0) in Jan after 3.0% in Dec.
  • “This is only the third time in the last four years that long-run expectations have exhibited such a large one-month change.”
  • “For both the short and long run, inflation expectations rose across multiple demographic groups, with particularly strong increases among lower-income consumers and Independents."
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