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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessUnder Pressure Following Canadian CPI
Gilts have registered fresh session lows after the firmer-than-expected round of Canadian CPI data weighed on wider core global FI.
- Still, the contract failed to test Friday/Monday session lows (98.38), which protect initial technical support at 98.21.
- Cash gilt yields are 2bp higher to 2bp lower, as the curve twist flattens.
- We have suggested that the 2-/5-/10-Year fly may remain rangebound in the coming weeks, with focus on GBP STIR pricing and the gilt issuance schedule.
- BoE-dated OIS shows just under 15bp of cuts through the August MPC and ~47bp of cuts come the end of the Dec MPC, little changed on the day.
- SONIA futures remain little changed on the day last -1.0 to +1.0, struggling to hold any shallow moves away from unchanged levels.
- Tomorrow will bring CBI sales data and GBP3.0bn of 3.75% Jan-38 gilt supply.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-24 | 5.053 | -14.7 |
Sep-24 | 4.985 | -21.5 |
Nov-24 | 4.836 | -36.4 |
Dec-24 | 4.733 | -46.7 |
Feb-25 | 4.593 | -60.7 |
Mar-25 | 4.494 | -70.6 |
May-25 | 4.370 | -83.0 |
Jun-25 | 4.275 | -92.5 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.