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Under Pressure, FOMC Focus As Much on December as November

US TSYS
Tsy futures trading weaker, near late overnight lows (30YY +.0118 at 4.1532%), moderate volumes (TYZ2<275k). Yield curves flatter (2s10s -1.817 at -42.834) with short end under pressure ahead this Wednesday's FOMC policy annc.
  • With 75bp expected, as much focus on year end guidance as current annc:
    • A step-down to a 50bp hike at the following meeting looks like the path of least resistance for now – the question is, how strongly does the FOMC seek to express that view.
    • In a close call, we expect only limited changes to the Statement – but anticipate that Chair Powell will signal that the Committee is currently eyeing either 50bp or 75bp in December, with the decision to be data-dependent.
  • In the meantime, Monday data on tap:
    • Oct-31 0945 MNI Chicago PMI (45.7, 47.0) at 0945ET
    • Oct-31 1030 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (-17.2, -18.5), 1030ET
  • Bill auctions kick off limited Tsy supply this week: US Tsy $57B 13W, $45B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET
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