MNI: FED: NEED MORE FAVORABLE DATA ON INFLATION TO CUT

MNI INTERVIEW2: Europe Must Act To Boost Growth-ECB's Kazaks

MNI BRIEF: European Fiscal Board Calls For Fiscal Tightening

MNI NBP WATCH: Rates Held As 2024 Outlook Remains Hawkish

MNI BRIEF: ADP's Richardson Sees Pockets of Weakness in US Job Market

MNI BRIEF: NBP Holds Reference Rate At 5.75% As Expected

US Treasury Auction Calendar

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE +32 BCF TO 3,134 BCF JUN 28 WK

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -12.16M TO 448.5M JUN 28 WK

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Under Pressure On Global Spill Over & As Oil Recovery Extends

BONDS
Bank Of England (BOE) Market NewsHomepageBond Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

An extension of the recovery in crude oil will be adding to the pressure derived from U.S. Tsys and JGBs, leaving EGBs and gilts lower on the day.

  • EUR5y5y inflation swaps tick away from yesterday’s multi-week lows.
  • Bund futures -45 at 130.91, with German yields 2-5bp higher as the curve steepens.
  • The weakness in core global FI, modest widening in EUR credit indices and a downtick in EUR equities sees some peripheral spread widening.
  • The 10-Year BTP/Bund spread moves back above 135bp after failing to sustain a move below 130bp in recent sessions.
  • Signs of a moderation in demand for the latest BTP Valore offering has weighed on BTPs in recent days.
  • Ascension Day will be limiting EGB liquidity.
  • Gilts have also softened ahead of the latest BoE decision.
  • Futures are -39 at 97.56, but bears have failed to force a move below Tuesday’s low.
  • The recent recovery in the contract poses a bit of a threat to the overarching bearish technical theme, although the April 12 high (98.23) was never challenged. Initial support comes in at the 20-day EMA (97.07).
  • Cash gilt yields are 2-4bp higher as the curve steepens a little.
  • We have highlighted our BoE preview on several occasions this morning, along with our belief that a dovish BoE outcome probably presents the greatest risk to market pricing.
  • 54bp of BoE cuts are priced through year end, with 24bp of cuts priced through the August MPC.
239 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

An extension of the recovery in crude oil will be adding to the pressure derived from U.S. Tsys and JGBs, leaving EGBs and gilts lower on the day.

  • EUR5y5y inflation swaps tick away from yesterday’s multi-week lows.
  • Bund futures -45 at 130.91, with German yields 2-5bp higher as the curve steepens.
  • The weakness in core global FI, modest widening in EUR credit indices and a downtick in EUR equities sees some peripheral spread widening.
  • The 10-Year BTP/Bund spread moves back above 135bp after failing to sustain a move below 130bp in recent sessions.
  • Signs of a moderation in demand for the latest BTP Valore offering has weighed on BTPs in recent days.
  • Ascension Day will be limiting EGB liquidity.
  • Gilts have also softened ahead of the latest BoE decision.
  • Futures are -39 at 97.56, but bears have failed to force a move below Tuesday’s low.
  • The recent recovery in the contract poses a bit of a threat to the overarching bearish technical theme, although the April 12 high (98.23) was never challenged. Initial support comes in at the 20-day EMA (97.07).
  • Cash gilt yields are 2-4bp higher as the curve steepens a little.
  • We have highlighted our BoE preview on several occasions this morning, along with our belief that a dovish BoE outcome probably presents the greatest risk to market pricing.
  • 54bp of BoE cuts are priced through year end, with 24bp of cuts priced through the August MPC.