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Underlying Nominal Retail Sale Strength Persists

US DATA
  • Total retail sales disappointed in July (0.0% vs +0.1% expected) but underlying details were more positive, with weakness concentrated in auto sales falling -1.6% M/M and other measures stronger albeit with smaller downward revisions.
  • Of note, the control group beat expectations with +0.8% M/M (cons 0.6%) after +0.7% M/M (revised -0.1pp), a small beat considering the volatility in these nominal measures amidst such elevated inflation.
  • Front end Treasuries reacted by cheapening 2.5bps before quickly reversing the move, mirroring fleeting reactions across the curve to leave 2s10s relatively little changed on the day with 2YY +7.5bps and 10YY +8bps on already large moves in the lead up to the release.
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