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Underperforming peers

GILTS
  • 10-year gilts are underperforming both Bunds and USTs this morning with gilt futures ignorning the moves higher seen in post-close trading for both TY and Bund futures. Gilt futures trade a little lower on the day (hitting a low of 99.72).
  • The gilt curve has showed similar steepening to the German curve this morning with 2-year gilt yields little changed while Schatz yields are around 1bp lower.
  • This morning saw UK labour market data show wages largely in line with expectations but the unemployment rate fall 2 tenths (instead of increasing one tenth as expected). The claimant count increased, but this was largely due to administrative eligibility changes. The SONIA curve is up to 2 ticks higher in the Reds while the market-implied probability of a September cut has fallen from about 33% yesterday to 29% today.
  • Looking ahead we have US PPI this afternoon ahead of both UK and US CPI tomorrow morning.
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