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Underperforming vs German curve as focus turns to MPC and Growth Statement

GILTS
  • Gilts have underperformed the German curve this morning with the SONIA strip also seeing less upside pressure (Whites/Reds/Greens largely unchanged versus the 3-6 ticks moves in Euribor Reds/Greens).
  • More details on the government's energy price support scheme for businesses have been announced this morning, with the amount of support available largely in line with that outlined a couple of weeks ago.
  • Focus is now turning to tomorrow's MPC meeting and the "Growth Plan" AKA "Fiscal Statement" which is due to outline other tax cuts on Friday (NI, income tax, VAT, fuel duty, stamp duty are all under discussion according to media reports).
  • We argued in our BOE preview that there is a good case for the MPC to delay the start of active gilt sales, at least until November when there will be more certainty over the remit and the market's ability to digest to notable increase in issuance that is expected from the government's energy and other fiscal plans.
  • For our full discussion on the options for active QT and the MNI BOE Preview see here.
  • 2y yields down -1.1bp today at 3.287%, 5y yields down -0.8bp at 3.288%, 10y yields down -3.6bp at 3.252% and 30y yields down -3.6bp at 3.551%.
  • 2s10s down -2.5bp today at -0.35.bp and 10s30s unch at 29.9bp.
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