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Underperforms USD Sell-Off

JPY

USD/JPY was mostly range bound post the Asia close, albeit with a modest downside bias. Dips sub 136.00 were supported, while we currently track in the 136.20/25 range. Highs around the 136.50 remain intact. The simple 100 and 200 day MAs remain just above the 137.00 level. Yen underperformed EUR and GBP strength, and only outperformed the NZD in the G10 space for Monday's session.

  • A more mixed US data backdrop took the shine off US yields, with the 2yr edging down to 4.78%, off by around 3bps for the session. The US-JP 10yr swap spread moved back down to +281bps from +284bps on Friday.
  • The Japan data calendar has IP for Jan on tap. The market expects -2.9% m/m, +0.3% prior. Retail sales for Jan also print (+0.4% m/m forecast, +1.1% prior). Later on, housing starts data is out.
  • Ueda's confirmation hearings are now out of the way and no major curve balls relative to expectations were delivered. This is likely to leave yen sentiment determined by offshore drivers, particularly US yield momentum, along with broader USD swings. We do get Tokyo CPI for Feb later in the week.

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