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Unemployment Rate Ticks Down, But Detail Not As Firm


Japan's Oct jobless rate ticked down to 2.5%, versus a 2.6% forecast and 2.6% prior outcome. We are still above earlier 2023 lows at 2.4%, but comfortably off highs of 2.8% (seen in March). The job to applicant ratio ticked up to 1.30 from 1.29 prior (1.29 was also the market consensus).

  • The detail on the unemployment rate doesn't look as strong, with the number of employed persons dropping 70k in the month, while the participation rate fell to 63.1% from 63.3%. The number of unemployed fell by 20k in the month.
  • For the job-to-applicant ratio, this is the first rise since late last year. The chart below overlays this index against the unemployment rate. The new job to applicant ratio also ticked higher to 2.24 from 2.22.
  • The authorities will be hoping this is the start of firmer labor market trends, ahead of key wage negotiations early next year.
  • Coming up soon is the Q3 Capex/company profits data.

Fig 1: Japan Jobless Rate Versus Job-To-Applicant Ratio (Inverted

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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