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Unexpected Move Lower In February Unemployment Rate

SWEDEN
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The Swedish seasonally adjusted February unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.0% in February (vs 8.2% cons and prior). The rate has nonetheless drifted upwards since March 2023 (low of 7.2%), and similar moves in the PES unemployment claims rate will give the Riksbank confidence that the labour market is gradually loosening.

  • The February data brings the unemployment rate further below the Riksbank's Q1 2024 forecast of 8.3% (from the November 2023 MPR).
  • The March 27 monetary policy meeting will come with a new MPR and a revised set of projections.
  • The vacancy to unemployment ratio (calculated using unemployed persons from today's LFS data and vacancies from the PES data released earlier this week), fell to 0.25 from 0.28 prior (when using unemployed persons from the PES data, the vacancy to unemployment ratio also fell to 0.33 from 0.37).
  • This is still a touch above the 2010 - 2019 average of 0.21.
  • The seasonally adjusted employment rate was steady at 69.1%, a touch above the Riksbank's' Q1 2024 forecast of 68.9% in the November MPR.


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The Swedish seasonally adjusted February unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.0% in February (vs 8.2% cons and prior). The rate has nonetheless drifted upwards since March 2023 (low of 7.2%), and similar moves in the PES unemployment claims rate will give the Riksbank confidence that the labour market is gradually loosening.

  • The February data brings the unemployment rate further below the Riksbank's Q1 2024 forecast of 8.3% (from the November 2023 MPR).
  • The March 27 monetary policy meeting will come with a new MPR and a revised set of projections.
  • The vacancy to unemployment ratio (calculated using unemployed persons from today's LFS data and vacancies from the PES data released earlier this week), fell to 0.25 from 0.28 prior (when using unemployed persons from the PES data, the vacancy to unemployment ratio also fell to 0.33 from 0.37).
  • This is still a touch above the 2010 - 2019 average of 0.21.
  • The seasonally adjusted employment rate was steady at 69.1%, a touch above the Riksbank's' Q1 2024 forecast of 68.9% in the November MPR.