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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
European rate hike pricing has faded more quickly than in the US since the Ukraine-Russia crisis started escalating.
- On Feb 11 the market closed pricing 52bp of 2022 ECB hikes over the rest of the year; US 155bp; UK 154bp.
- Today, markets continue to price in a robust hiking cycle in the US at ~154bp by the Dec FOMC. While that's downshifted to ~140bp for the BoE, and ~36bp for the ECB.
- UK hike pricing is down ~14bp since then. Eurozone pricing is ~16bp lower.
- This relative divergence has despite strong Feb PMI data in Europe this week, a further suggestion geopolitics are overshadowing macro. Arguably a decisive Ukraine-Russia de-escalation would upwardly impact ECB (and to a lesser extent, BoE) 2022 rate pricing more than the US where so far it's been largely shrugged off.
OIS Implied By Dec 2022 Policy MeetingsSource: BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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