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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Unrounded Core CPI Estimates Centered On 0.3% M/M

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
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  • Due Wednesday at 0830ET, consensus sees core CPI inflation at a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M in January.
  • The below unrounded estimates are firmly centered on that with a median 0.30% M/M or average 0.29% M/M, with a range of 0.22-0.37% M/M. It would be an acceleration from the 0.23% M/M in December, assuming no revisions in the annual update due to be released simultaneously.
  • The limited early estimates for core PCE inflation at this stage average 0.29% M/M in January for a firmer acceleration from the 0.16% M/M in December.
  • Whilst these estimates would see core CPI right on the cusp of rounding either to 3.1% or 3.2% Y/Y after the 3.24% Y/Y in December, well-known base effects would see a larger moderation in core PCE (from 2.79% to 2.58% Y/Y in the hypothetical case with no revisions).  
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  • Due Wednesday at 0830ET, consensus sees core CPI inflation at a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M in January.
  • The below unrounded estimates are firmly centered on that with a median 0.30% M/M or average 0.29% M/M, with a range of 0.22-0.37% M/M. It would be an acceleration from the 0.23% M/M in December, assuming no revisions in the annual update due to be released simultaneously.
  • The limited early estimates for core PCE inflation at this stage average 0.29% M/M in January for a firmer acceleration from the 0.16% M/M in December.
  • Whilst these estimates would see core CPI right on the cusp of rounding either to 3.1% or 3.2% Y/Y after the 3.24% Y/Y in December, well-known base effects would see a larger moderation in core PCE (from 2.79% to 2.58% Y/Y in the hypothetical case with no revisions).  
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