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Unusually Low Response Rate Behind Weak March Advance Estimate

CANADA DATA
  • Of note when looking at the very weak March advance estimate of -1.4% M/M for retail sales, the response rate was unusually low at 28.4%.
  • It compares with the 51% last month and a five-month average of 44% (excluding the Jan advance which is harder to find retrospectively) - table below.
  • Front end GoCs have pared some of the further post-retail sales gains but hard to fully separate from subsequent fluctuations in Treasuries. Nevertheless, the latest implied weakness in retail sales should be taken with caution at this stage.

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