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Unwinding Risk Ahead Weekend Tsys Extending Highs

US TSYS
  • Geopol risk over the weekend saw curves twisted steeper during the second half, short end started outperforming around the time Israeli military spokesman headlines made the rounds: "ISRAELI ARMY SAYS GROUND FORCES EXPANDING ACTIVITY IN GAZA: AP".
  • Current Dec'23 2Y futures trade 101-11 (+1.88) while 10Y trades 106-15.5 (+4.5) with initial technical resistance at 106-29 (20-day EMA); 10Y yield -.0099 at 4.8346%, 2Y10Y +2.120 at -17.584.
  • Early support in equities evaporated on the headlines as well, longs squaring ahead the weekend (SPX Eminis currently -29.5 at 4125.50).
  • Brief two-way reported after Personal Income came in a little lower than expected (0.3% vs. 0.4% est, 0.4% prior), Personal Spending firmer (0.7% vs 0.5% exp, 0.4% prior). PCE deflator's in line: MoM (0.4% vs. 0.3% est, 0.4% prior); YoY (3.4% vs. 3.4% est, 3.4% prior/rev).
  • Fast two-way noted Tsys pared gains then rebound after higher than expected UofMich 1Y inflation figure at 4.2% vs. 3.8% est (3.8% prior), 5Y in-line with exp at 3.0%.
  • Quiet start to the week ahead, main focus on Wednesday afternoon's FOMC policy annc, ADP private employment data early Wednesday and Non-Farm payrolls next Friday. US Treasury's quarterly borrowing estimates on Monday.
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