CANADA JOBLESS RATE +6.8% VS FORECAST +6.6%, PRIOR +6.5%

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 6

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Tankan To Show Slipping Sentiment

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY288.1 Bln via OMO Friday

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BRIEF: EU-Mercosur Deal In Final Negotiations - EC

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MNI: US NOV NONFARM PAYROLLS +227K; PRIVATE +194K, GOVT +33K

US NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.246%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Up on the open

SONIA
  • SONIA futures have moved a little higher this morning following the UK CPI print. The strip has moved largely in line with the print coming in in line with expectations rather than beating expectations.
  • We think this is probably because the surprise came in clothing - and given the nature of the surprise, a category that could easily see a reversal next month.
  • If this is the case, then the upside to CPI this morning can largely be dismissed.
  • There's still a lot priced into the curve (too much in our opinion) and we remain vulnerable to further moves higher, although positioning is probably a bit cleaner after yesterday's moves.
  • We now price 42bp by the March MPC meeting, a cumulative 82bp by May and 104bp by the June meeting.
  • Whites are up 2.5-3.0 ticks with Reds 3.0-4.0 ticks higher.
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