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Will Greece complete its repayments to the IMF in 2021? (2/2)

GREECE
  • With all of H2 still to go, we question whether Greece could go further and entirely repay IMF funds this year. Following the repayment in March, Greece now owes less than E1.7bln to the IMF and these loans have interest rates far in excess of current markets rates for GGBs. All of the IMF funds are due to be repaid by 2024.
  • Greece would need permission from the ESM/EFSF to make a further repayment to the IMF without concurrently paying back the ESM/EFSF, but with these obligations having been waived both earlier this year and in 2019, we think this would not be a major stumbling block.
  • Assuming the ECB does not slow the purchase pace this week, and market conditions remain favourable, we could see Greece come back to the market again as soon as next month even if it raises E3.0bln tomorrow (or after the summer break ahead of the September ECB meeting).
  • A summary of the outstanding Greek debt by type is available on the PDMA website here.
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