UPDATE: UK Data F'casts: Aug BOE MPC Minutes, Inflation Report

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - All eyes will be tuned to 'Super Thursday' this week, with

the Bank of England set to publish the minutes from its latest monetary policy

meeting, alongside the third Quarterly Inflation Report of the year.

     Since the last MPC meeting - where Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders

surprised virtually everybody by joining usual suspect Kristin Forbes in voting

to hike the Bank Rate by 0.25 basis points - chatter of policy tightening, which

gained traction immediately after the June 14 meeting, died down somewhat as

relatively soft economic data rolled in.

     All but one of the analysts polled in a MNI survey expect Bank Rate to hold

firm at 0.25%. Nomura, the exception, judge that the conditions required to

warrant a tightening in policy are now in place, forecasting a 0.25bp hike to

0.5%.

     As for the Bank Rate vote breakdown, consistent with the median forecast

for an unchanged Bank Rate, analysts see a 6-2 (unchanged-hike) split as the

likeliest outcome. Kristin Forbes, the lone dissenter before June, is no longer

a member on the MPC.

     For the vote breakdown to match June's 5-3 outturn in July, another MPC

member would have to join McCafferty and Saunders, assuming that that pair do

not have a change of heart.

     The August meeting will be the first attended by new MPC member Silvana

Tenreyro but will have come too early for Dave Ramsden, appointed the new Deputy

Governor, who will officially begin his Bank duties on September 4.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                   Aug                  Aug                  Aug

                                   BOE                  BOE                  BOE

                   MPC Policy Decision  MPC Policy Decision  MPC Policy Decision

                           Bank Rate %           Unch. Vote            Hike Vote

Date Out                        03-Aug               03-Aug               03-Aug

Median                            0.25                    6                    2

Forecast High                      0.5                    6                    5

Forecast Low                       0.3                    3                    2

Standard

Deviation                          0.1                  0.9                  0.9

Count                               23                   14                   14

Prior                             0.25                    5                    3

ABN Amro                          0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Bayern                            0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Barclays                          0.25                    6                    2

Berenberg                         0.25                  N/A                  N/A

BofAML                            0.25                    6                    2

Capital Economics                 0.25                    5                    3

Credit Suisse                     0.25                    6                    2

Commerzbank                       0.25                    6                    2

Daiwa                             0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Investec                          0.25                    6                    2

JP Morgan                         0.25                    6                    2

LBBW                              0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Lloyds TSB                        0.25                    6                    2

Natixis                           0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Nordea                            0.25                    6                    2

Nomura                            0.50                    3                    5

Oxford Economics                  0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Pantheon                          0.25                    6                    2

RBC                               0.25                    5                    3

Scotia                            0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Standard Chart                    0.25                    5                    3

Societe Generale                  0.25                    6                    2

UniCredit                         0.25                  N/A                  N/A

     Of the analysts who expressed a forecast on the level of Quantitative

Easing (QE), none foresee a winding down of QE commencing in August.

----------------------------------------------------------------

                                    Aug                      Aug

                                    BOE                      BOE

                    MPC Policy Decision      MPC Policy Decision

                    Asset Purch Stg bln  Corp Bond Purch Stg bln

Date Out                         03-Aug                   03-Aug

Median                           435.00                    10.00

Forecast High                     435.0                     10.0

Forecast Low                      435.0                     10.0

Standard Deviation                  0.0                      0.0

Count                                15                        7

Prior                             435.0                     10.0

ABN Amro                          435.0                      N/A

Barclays                          435.0                     10.0

BofAML                            435.0                      N/A

Capital Economics                 435.0                     10.0

Investec                          435.0                     10.0

JP Morgan                         435.0                     10.0

LBBW                              435.0                      N/A

Lloyds TSB                        435.0                     10.0

Natixis                           435.0                      N/A

Nordea                            435.0                      N/A

Nomura                            435.0                      N/A

Oxford Economics                  435.0                      N/A

RBC                               435.0                     10.0

Standard Chartered                435.0                      N/A

Societe Generale                  435.0                     10.0

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]