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Updated EconProjections Show Much Stronger Growth Profile Than Expected

FED

The new economic projections show a much stronger growth profile than previously expected in December's: 2024 GDP growth notably has been upgraded to 2.1% (from 1.4%, and well above the highest analyst expectation we'd seen of 1.9%), with 2025-26 growth now seen remaining at 2%, above the 1.8% longer-run rate.

  • Unemployment rates are seen a touch lower.
  • That means that core PCE inflation is seen a little higher, with the 2.6% in 2024 up 0.2pp from the December projection - and again, at the high end of expectations we'd seen.

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