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UPM-Kymmene Results Disappoint As They Join Stora Enso Sell-Off

CAPITAL GOODS
  • Q4 Sales missed consensus by EUR 200mn, coming in at EUR 2.53bn (-22% YoY). adj-EBIT beat estimates by ~EUR 5mn though still showed a 51% decrease YoY. However, in contrast to Stora Enso, they maintained their EUR 1.50 dividend as expected.
  • EBITDA leverage rose to 1.55x from 0.95x at FY22. Cash & unused RCFs stand at EUR 3.6bn (from EUR 6.4bn at FY22) against 2024 maturities of EUR 4.8bn (as per DDIS). Q4 OCF was down to EUR 456mn from EUR 1576mn in Q422 – total OCF for FY23 was EUR 2.27bn, up from EUR 508mjn in FY22.
  • UPM see FY24 comparable EBIT higher vs. FY23, driven by delivery volumes, ramp-up at their new Uruguayan pulp mill and lower fixed costs, though H1 is expected to be worse WoW on the back of refund timings and high maintenance activity.
  • UPM shares are -8.5% in trading thus far, while Stora Enso sits -4.5%. EUR spreads are broadly wider across both issuers, with both seeing widening of up to 7bps vs. midswaps.
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