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Upside Surprise & Core CPI Jump Kick of EZ Inflation Round

SPAIN DATA
MNI (London)

SPAIN JAN FLASH CPI -0.5% M/M (FCST -1.9%); DEC 0.0% M/M

SPAIN JAN FLASH CPI +5.8% Y/Y (FCST +4.8%); DEC +5.5% Y/Y

  • The fourth largest eurozone economy kicked off the round of prelim January CPI data with a substantial upside surprise on the headline print.
  • Spanish HICP accelerated by 0.3pp to +5.8% y/y, against expectations of a 0.7pp slowdown. Fuel prices largely accounted for the boost.
  • On the month, prices fell by -0.5% m/m, softer than the -1.9% expected.
  • Today's upside surprises are in part due to major re-weighting (clothing less heavily weighted, transport more heavily weighted), re-basing and changes in the coverage of gas and electricity market prices.
  • Core CPI (non-harmonised) jumped 0.5pp to +7.5% y/y, outpacing CPI for the second consecutive month. This sticky core CPI remains a key concern for the ECB, as it implies that broad-based price pressures continue to build, strengthening the need for further tightening.

Source: INE

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