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Upside Surprise in Robust May Industrial Production

FRANCE DATA
MNI (London)

FRANCE MAY INDUSTRIAL PROD +1.2% M/M (FCST -0.2%); APR +0.8% M/M

FRANCE MAY INDUSTRIAL PROD +2.6% Y/Y (FCST +0.6%); APR +1.7%r Y/Y

  • Kicking off the round of major eurozone May IP data, French industrial production beat expectations, posting a healthy +1.2% m/m increase against expectations of a -0.2% m/m contraction.
  • With strikes at refineries easing, coking and refining production jumped markedly by +45.1% m/m (after +22.1% in April). Further rebounds were recorded in auto (+5.8% after -1.7%) and agro-food industries (+1.5% after -0.5%).
  • Barring a pronounced June contraction, French IP now looks likely to post a positive contribution to Q2 q/q GDP.
  • At +2.6% y/y, 2023 June IP was substantially stronger than this time in 2022.
  • Yet Insee flagged that certain energy-intensive branches continue to struggle with high energy prices. March to May production for steel was down -19.1% y/y, paper down -24.2% y/y and chemicals down -13.1% y/y.
  • The French manufacturing PMI has been in contractive territory since January, and continually deteriorating new orders imply a negative outlook for the industry in months to come.


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