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Upward Revisions To Core PCE Forecasts Due To Portfolio Management PPI

US DATA
Energy BulletsCommodities

Analysts look to the sharp rise in portfolio management PPI as rationale for upward revisions to core PCE forecasts, even as airfares and vehicle insurance PPI moderated/held steady in January. A reminder that the 5.5% M/M rise in portfolio management was the largest such increase since January 2021, after the Jan '24 equity market rally.

  • JPMorgan revise up their PCE forecast to 0.47% M/M and 2.9% Y/Y (from 0.29% M/M, 2.7% Y/Y prior).
  • Goldman Sachs now look for core PCE at 0.43% (from 0.35% post-CPI), corresponding to a 2.85% Y/Y rate.
  • Pantheon look for a 0.32% M/M print, noting that "that nearly a quarter of the January increase will come from the portfolio management component".
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Analysts look to the sharp rise in portfolio management PPI as rationale for upward revisions to core PCE forecasts, even as airfares and vehicle insurance PPI moderated/held steady in January. A reminder that the 5.5% M/M rise in portfolio management was the largest such increase since January 2021, after the Jan '24 equity market rally.

  • JPMorgan revise up their PCE forecast to 0.47% M/M and 2.9% Y/Y (from 0.29% M/M, 2.7% Y/Y prior).
  • Goldman Sachs now look for core PCE at 0.43% (from 0.35% post-CPI), corresponding to a 2.85% Y/Y rate.
  • Pantheon look for a 0.32% M/M print, noting that "that nearly a quarter of the January increase will come from the portfolio management component".