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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - US CPI, BoC Decision Up Next
MNI US OPEN - Kyiv Ready for Ceasefire, Russia Sceptical
MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, March 12
US BONDS: 10Y Yields Move Flat On The Day, Short End Underperforms
10Y Treasury yields are now flat on the day, falling 6+bp since the solid 10Y Note refunding auction at 1300ET and down 8bp from the highs set post-Services ISM selloff.
- The short end has held onto earlier losses, however: 2Y yields are up nearly 4bp on the session and 1bp since ISM (albeit 3bp off highs), resulting in a twist flattening in the curve.
- The short end underperformance corresponds with a slight uptick in the futures-implied Fed rate path (up 5-6bp through end 2025 vs Monday's close): while a 25bp cut is still basically fully priced for Thursday, December is not a done deal (19bp incremental), with 7bp less cuts through 2025 (114bp total). Overall the rate path is a little higher than it was before Friday's soft payrolls report. See chart below.
- Overall rates will remain highly sensitive to election headlines - checking on levels, 2-Yr yield is up 3.7bps at 4.1972%, 5-Yr is up 2.1bps at 4.1669%, 10-Yr is down 0.2bps at 4.2828%, and 30-Yr is down 2.3bps at 4.4447%.

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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.