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US CPI Beat Firms $-Bloc OIS Pricing

STIR

STIR markets within the $-bloc have firmed by 4 to 21bps since the beginning of the week, with the US experiencing the most notable increase while Australia lags behind. This movement was triggered by the release of stronger-than-anticipated US CPI data overnight.

  • The US market now has 44bps of Fed easing priced for this year, well below the 75bps median projection by policymakers at the March FOMC. Moreover, the first 25bp rate cut has been pushed back to November, from July ahead of the inflation data.
  • December 2024 expectations and the cumulative easing across the $-bloc stand at: 4.89%, -44bps (FOMC); 4.41%, -59bps (BoC); 4.06%, -26bps (RBA); and 5.03%, -47bps (RBNZ).


Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR (%)



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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