US Cr Mkt Week Ahead: April 30/May 1 FOMC Minutes, Home Sales

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:40 GMT May 19/18:40 EST May 19

     CHICAGO (MNI) - The week ahead focus on Wednesday's release of the April

30/May 1 FOMC minutes, home sales data include existing home sales on Tuesday

and new home sales on Thursday, both for the month of April.

     Reminder, Friday is a shortened session (1300ET close) ahead Monday May 27

Memorial Day holiday.

     Multiple Fed speakers expected throughout the week kicks off with a

roundtable on mon/pol strategy, tools, communication practices with Board of

Governor VC Clarida and NY Fed Pres Williams on Monday.

     Chicago Fed President Evans will answer questions at a financial markets

conference in Florida, Boston Fed President Rosengren at the Economic Club of

NY, both Tuesday.

     St Louis Fed president Bullard will answer questions on the US economy and

mon/pol from Hong Kong early Wednesday, followed by Atlanta Fed President Bostic

at Dallas Fed's Tech-Enabled Disruption conference in Dallas, TX.

     The Tech-Enabled Disruption conference in Dallas resumes Thursday with

Dallas Fed President Kaplan participating in a moderated Q&A with Tom Barkin,

Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly.

     U.S. Treasury auctions for the week ahead 13- and 26W bills on Monday, 52W

bills on Tuesday, 4- and 8W bills on Thursday along with 10Y TIPS.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: Dearth of data to kick off the week, but several Fed speakers include

Philly Fed Pres Harker, Board of Governors VC Clarida and NY Fed Pres Williams.

- Tuesday: May Philly Fed Nonmfg Index; Redbook retail sales m/m; April existing

home sales.

     After last month's decline, Morgan Stanley economists expect home sales to

rebound "+2.6%, up to a 5.344 million unit pace," approximately "8% above the

temporary trough in January." 

     MS sees "softer mortgage rates as a supportive factor" while "inventory

levels also rose in the March release, with total housing inventory up 2.4% on a

year-over-year basis."

- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications; Q4 QCEW employment; crude oil stocks ex.

SPR w/w; April 30/May 1 FOMC minutes.

     RBS Natwest economists posit the FOMC minutes "could provide insight on

'transitory' inflation views."

     RBS notes "most Fed officials' public comments since the May 1 meeting have

mentioned the 'transitory' nature of the inflation slowdown, hinting that a

majority of officials concur with Chair Powell. However, Fed Presidents Bullard

and Evans have both warned that they don't want to be too dismissive of the

slowing."

     Any added information on the balance sheet unwind and the cut to IOER in

the minutes will also be of interest to market participants, RBS wrote. "Lastly,

the May meeting will likely include notes from the quarterly staff briefing on

financial stability."

- Thursday: Weekly claims; April building permits revision; May Markit Mfg and

Services Indexes; April new home sales; May Kansas City Fed Mfg Index; May Fed

weekly securities holdings.

     Barclays economists forecast new home sales "to decline by 2.5% m/m in

April reaching 675k. Sales have been increasing at a brisk pace since January

and we expect a modest correction in April as the lack of inventory likely

starts to bite. Nevertheless, at this level sales would be consistent with solid

activity and a continued, if modest, late cycle expansion of the housing

market."

- Friday: April durable goods new orders; Q2 St. Louis and NY Fed Real GDP

Nowcasts.

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

20-May ---- Atl Fed, Financial Markets Conference

20-May 0835 Atl Fed Pres Bostic interview on CNBC

20-May 0930 Phi Fed Pres Harker econ-outlook, mgmt sci conf, Boston, Q&A

20-May 1130 US TSY $36B 13W bill auction (912796SE0)

20-May 1130 US TSY $36B 26W bill auction (912796ST7)

20-May 1300 NY Fed, "Fed Listens" roundtable on mon/pol strategy, tools, comm

practices w/ Brd of Govs VC Clarida, NY Fed Pres Williams

21-May ---- Atl Fed, Financial Markets Conference

21-May 0830 May Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg Index (21.0, --)

21-May 0855 18-May Redbook retail sales m/m (1.3%, --)

21-May 1000 Apr existing home sales (5.21m, 5.40m)

21-May 1045 Chi Fed Pres Evans, Financial Markets Conference, FL, Q&A

21-May 1130 US TSY $26B 52W bill auction (912796SR1)

21-May 1200 Bos Fed Pres Rosengren, Economic Club of NY

22-May 0100 StL Fed pres Bullard, US econ, mon/pol, Hong Kong, Q&A

22-May 0700 17-May MBA Mortgage Apps'

22-May 1000 Q4 QCEW employment

22-May 1000 NY Fed Pres Williams, Homeownership/Housing, NY

22-May 1010 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, Dallas Fed's Tech-Enabled Disruption conf,

Implications for Business, Labor Mkts and Mon/Pol conf, Dallas, TX.

22-May 1030 17-May crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w

22-May 1400 April 30/May 1 FOMC minutes

23-May 0830 18-May jobless claims (212k, 218k)

23-May 0900 Apr bldg permits revision

23-May 0945 May Markit Mfg Index (flash) (52.6, --)

23-May 0945 May Markit Services Index (flash) (53.0, --)

23-May 1000 Apr new home sales (692k, 670k)

23-May 1030 17-May natural gas stocks w/w

23-May 1100 US Tsy weekly bill and 2-, 5- and 7Y note annc

23-May 1100 May Kansas City Fed Mfg Index

23-May 1100 SF Fed Pres Daly, Tech-Enabled Disruption conf, TX, Q&A

23-May 1300 US TSY $11B 10Y TIPS auction (9128285W6)

23-May 1320 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, moderated Q&A w/ Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic,

and Mary Daly, Tech-Enabled Disruption conf, TX, Q&A

23-May 1630 22-May Fed weekly securities holdings

24-May 0830 Apr durable goods new orders (+2.8%, -1.7%)

24-May 0830 Apr durable new orders ex transport (0.2%, --)

24-May 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

24-May 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

24-May 1300 Early US close ahead Memorial day close, Mon May 27

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]