US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: Focus On Fri's April CPI, Fed Speak Return

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Light week ahead for data with market focus on April CPI

data Friday, with various speakers from the Federal Reserve on tap after they

exited their media blackout late last week.

     Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans will answer questions

at a seminar at the Bank of Italy in Rome early Monday followed by Philadelphia

Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker delivering a speech on economic

outlook at Drexel University in Philadelphia, PA.

     On Tuesday, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan to participate

in a moderated Q&A session in Beijing. Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice

Chairman Randal Quarles to participate in the Leader's Forum Discussion with

Professor Andrew Metrick at Yale University late morning.

     Early Wednesday, Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lael Brainard is

scheduled to give opening remarks at "Fed Listens: A Community Listening

Session".

     Fed speak ramps up late week with Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome

Powell, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic and Chicago

Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans at separate events.

     Friday Fed speakers include Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard,

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic and New York Federal

Reserve Bank President John Williams.

     U.S. Treasury auctions cover 13- and 26W bills on Monday, $38B 3Y note on

Tuesday, $27B 10Y note on Wednesday and $19B 30Y Bond auction on Thursday. There

will be the weekly 4W and 8W auctions on Thursday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: April Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI); Treasury STRIPS

Holdings, also for April.

- Tuesday: Redbook retail sales m/m; JOLTS job openings level and quit rates for

March; May IBD/TIPP Optimism Index; March consumer credit. 

"After a sharp 538k decline in February" Nomura economists "expect job openings

to rebound modestly in March, consistent with solid March data on payroll

employment growth. However, three consecutive monthly declines in retail trade

vacancy postings, combined with weak anecdotal evidence, highlights the ongoing

softness in the retail trade sector despite a rebound in sales during March."

- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications; May help-wanted online ratio; April

Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI).

- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims; trade balance for March; Apr Final Demand

PPI; March wholesale inventories and sales; Fed weekly securities holdings.

Morgan Stanley economists "expect core PPI to improve in April with a trend-like

0.2% gain. A moderation in energy prices and the volatile trade services

category (which jumped 1.1% in March) should drive 0.2% growth on a headline

basis as well. A print in line with our forecasts would hold headline PPI steady

at 2.2% on a year-over-year basis (NSA) and core CPI steady at 2.0%."

- Friday: April Consumer Price Index (CPI); Q2 St. Louis and NY Fed GDP

Nowcasts; Apr Treasury budget balance. 

RBS NatWest economists "expect fairly broad-based strength, including the core

measure. In April, the core may have advanced by 0.203%, which would push up the

y/y rate from 2.0% in March to 2.1% in April."

TD Securities estimate headline CPI will "pick up two tenths to 2.1% in April on

the back of a strong 0.4% monthly increase. The main driver behind the gain is

another sizable jump in gasoline prices (+10.2%). We anticipate core CPI

inflation to register another 0.2% m/m gain (2.1% y/y), as a firm increase in

core services prices will likely offset a another decline in core goods prices."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

06-May 0600 Chi Fed Pres Charles Evans

06-May 0930 Phi Fed Pres Patrick Harker

06-May 1000 Apr ETI (110.98, --)

06-May 1130 US TSY $39B 13W bill auction (912796SC4)

06-May 1130 US TSY $36B 26W bill auction (912796RM3)

06-May 1500 Apr Treasury STRIPS Holdings

07-May 0700 Dallas Fed Pres Rob Kaplan

07-May 0855 04-May Redbook retail sales m/m (1.2%, --)

07-May 1000 Mar JOLTS job openings level (7.087M, --) 

07-May 1000 Mar JOLTS quits rate (2.3%, --)

07-May 1000 May IBD/TIPP Optimism Index (54.2, --)

07-May 0700 Fed Board of Gov VC Randal Quarles

07-May 1300 US TSY $38B 3Y note auction (9128286U9)

07-May 1500 Mar consumer credit ($15.2B, $16.4B)

08-May 0700 03-May MBA Mortgage Applications (-4.3%, --)

08-May 0830 Fed Board of Gov mem Lael Brainard

08-May 1000 May help-wanted online ratio

08-May 1030 03-May crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (9.93m bbl, --)

08-May 1100 Apr Kansas City Fed LMCI

08-May 1300 US TSY $27B 10Y note auction (9128286T2)

09-May 0830 04-May jobless claims (230k, 215k)

09-May 0830 Mar trade balance (-$49.4B, -$51.2B)

09-May 0830 Apr Final Demand PPI (0.6%, 0.2%)

09-May 0830 Apr PPI ex. food and energy (0.3%, 0.2%)

09-May 0830 Apr PPI ex. food, energy, trade (0.0%, --)

09-May 0930 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell

09-May 1000 Mar wholesale inventories (0.2%, --)

09-May 1000 Mar wholesale sales (0.3%, --)

09-May 1030 03-May natural gas stocks w/w (123Bcf, --)

09-May 1045 Atl Fed Pres Raphael Bostic

09-May 1300 US TSY $19B 30Y Bond auction (912810SH2)

09-May 1315 Chi Fed Pres Charles Evans

09-May 1630 08-May Fed weekly securities holdings

10-May 0830 Apr CPI (0.4%, 0.4%)

10-May 0830 Apr CPI Ex Food and Energy (0.1%, 0.2%)

10-May 0830 Fed Board of Gov mem Lael Brainard

10-May 0900 Atl Fed Pres Raphael Bostic

10-May 1000 NY Fed Pres John Williams

10-May 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

10-May 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (2.15%, --)

10-May 1400 Apr Treasury budget balance ($146.9B, $225B)

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]