US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: Retail Sales, CPI Kick Off Week Ahead

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:40 GMT Mar 10/18:40 EST Mar 10

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Consumer related data will be the focus early in the week

ahead with January Retail Sales on Monday and CPI for February on Tuesday.

     There's a dearth of Fed speakers ahead after their media blackout kicked

off early Saturday (through the March 19-20 FOMC). That said, Fed Chair Powell's

appearance on 60 Minutes Sunday night with former Fed Chairmen Ben Bernanke and

Janet Yellen, will steer clear of forward policy.

     Deutsche Bank economists suspect the week's data will "do little to sway

the FOMC members from their intentions to remain on pause over the near-term,

(but) the data could influence policymakers' forecasts for growth and inflation,

which will be updated at next week's meeting."

     U.S. Treasury auctions include 13- and 26W bills with $38B 3Y notes on

Monday, $24B 10Y notes on Tuesday and $16B 30Y bond on Wednesday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: January retail sales; December business inventories; February ETI;

March NY Fed expectations survey.

     On retail sales, Deutsche said "though the nearly 5% decline in unit motor

vehicle sales from December to January will likely weigh on headline sales

(+0.2% vs. -1.2%)," DB expects "some modest payback in sales excluding

automobiles (+0.6% vs. -1.8%) given the severity of the December drop."

- Tuesday: February NFIB Small Business Index; February CPI; Mar Redbook retail

sales m/m. 

     Danske economists "expect CPI core rose +0.2% m/m in February implying a

core inflation rate unchanged at 2.2% y/y. Moreover, we will keep an eye on the

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index on Tuesday, given the recession fears in

financial markets."

- Wednesday: February Final Demand PPI; January durable goods new orders;

January construction spending.

     Barclays economists estimate final demand PPI "to have increased 0.3% m/m

February, driven by a rebound in energy prices as well as a solid increase in

food prices. For core PPI (excluding food and energy) we forecast a modest 0.2%

m/m increase."

- Thursday: Weekly claims; February imports/exports price indexes; January new

home sales.

     On new home sales, Nomura economists "expect a 1.9% m-o-m increase in new

home sales to 633k in January. The volume of mortgage applications jumped in

January and the NAHB single-family homebuilder index rebounded, suggesting that

sales activity may have improved in the month."

- Friday: March Empire Manufacturing Index; February industrial production and

capacity utilization; March Michigan sentiment index; JOLTS job openings level

and quits rate.

     Morgan Stanley economists said that "after industrial production took a

plunge in January, we look for a modest recovery of 0.3% in February. Overall

manufacturing production will likely be soft given the 0.3% drop in factory

hours worked in the February employment report, while we look for utilities and

mining output to rise."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

11-Mar 0830 Jan retail sales (-1.2%, -0.1%)

11-Mar 0830 Jan retail sales ex. motor vehicle (-1.8%, 0.2%)

11-Mar 0830 Jan retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (-1.4%, --)

11-Mar 1000 Dec business inventories (-0.1%, 0.6%)

11-Mar 1000 Feb ETI (109.6, --)

11-Mar 1000 Feb BLS state payrolls

11-Mar 1100 Mar NY Fed expectations survey

11-Mar 1130 US TSY $48B 13W bill auction (912796RU5)

11-Mar 1130 US TSY $39B 26W bill auction (912796RA9)

11-Mar 1300 US TSY $38B 3Y note auction (9128286H8) 

12-Mar 0600 Feb NFIB Small Business Index (101.2, --)

12-Mar 0830 Feb CPI (0.0%, 0.2%)

12-Mar 0830 Feb CPI Ex Food and Energy (0.2%, 0.2)

12-Mar 0855 09-Mar Redbook retail sales m/m

12-Mar 1300 US TSY $24B 10Y note auction (9128286B1)

13-Mar 0700 08-Mar MBA Mortgage Applications

13-Mar 0830 Feb Final Demand PPI (-0.1%, 0.2%)

13-Mar 0830 Feb PPI ex. food and energy (0.3%, 0.3%)

13-Mar 0830 Feb PPI ex. food, energy, trade (0.2%, --)

13-Mar 0830 Jan durable goods new orders (1.2%, -0.5%)

13-Mar 0830 Jan durable new orders ex transport (0.1%, 0.1%)

13-Mar 1000 Mar Atlanta Fed inflation

13-Mar 1000 Jan construction spending (-0.6%, 0.3%)

13-Mar 1030 08-Mar crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w

13-Mar 1300 US TSY $16B 30Y bond auction (912810SF6)

14-Mar 0830 09-Mar jobless claims (220k, 225k)

14-Mar 0830 Feb imports price index (-0.5%, 0.3%)

14-Mar 0830 Feb exports price index (-0.6%, --)

14-Mar 1000 Jan new home sales (225k est)

14-Mar 1030 08-Mar natural gas stocks w/w

14-Mar 1630 13-Mar Fed weekly securities holdings

15-Mar 0830 Mar Empire Manufacturing Index (8.8, 10.0)

15-Mar 0915 Feb industrial production (-0.6%, +0.4%)

15-Mar 0915 Feb capacity utilization (78.2%, 78.5%)

15-Mar 1000 Mar Michigan sentiment index (p) (93.8, 95.5)

15-Mar 1000 Jan JOLTS job openings level (7335k, --)

15-Mar 1000 Jan JOLTS quits rate (2.3%, --)

15-Mar 1100 Q1 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (+2.18%, --)

15-Mar 1115 Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (+1.40%, --)

15-Mar 1600 Jan net TICS flows

15-Mar 1600 Jan long term TICS flows

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]