US Credit Mkt Wk Ahd: Fourth Qrtr Kicks-Off With Sep NFP Fri

     CHICAGO (MNI) - ISM, Construction Spending, Motor Vehicle Sales data kicks

off the fourth quarter of 2018 early Monday/Tuesday, early Wednesday's ADP

private employment may give some insight ahead Friday's headline September

employment data.

     October will likely be an active month for trade, usually the case with

markets slowing down ahead Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, not to mention

position wind-up or -down as the case may be, ahead U.S. midterm elections on

Tuesday, November 6.

     The Federal Reserve is now comfortably out of their media blackout period

after the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate last week by

25bp, to 2.00%-2.25%, multiple Fed speakers are now on the calendar in the week

ahead.

     Crowding the midweek Fed speaker engagements: Fed VC Randal Quarles,

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Philly Fed President Patrick Harker, Fed

Board of Governors member Lael Brainard, Clev Fed President Loretta Mester and

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

     TD Securities posited "that hawkish rhetoric from some of the speakers

could help offset some of the recent steepening of the curve."

     Meanwhile, headlines regarding U.S. trade policy, Italian budget crisis, as

well as political mudslinging (unfortunately) remain in short and long-term

focus as they continue to roil markets.

Data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: September ISM (60.0) and Construction Spending (0.5%).

     TD Securities  economists said the ISM data "will be interesting to watch

for signs of weakness following the Trump administration's implementation of

$200bn in additional tariffs on Chinese imports. While the report has yet to

reflect outright weakness due to tariffs, many companies had noted that tariffs

remain a key source of concern."

     Nomura economists estimate a "modest 2.3pp decline in the ISM manufacturing

index to 59.0 in September considering heightened trade concerns and ongoing

capacity constraints."

- Tuesday: North American made motor vehicle sales will roll out through the

session. RBS NatWest economists estimate a modest rebound in total light vehicle

sales in September to 16.8m saar from 16.6m in August.

- Wednesday: September ADP private payrolls (185k). Nomura economists "expect

ADP a report 175k gain in private employment during September". On Thursday's

weekly claims, Nomura said "Low initial and continuing jobless claims remain

consistent with labor market strength. However, potential business disruptions

from Hurricane Florence on the southeast coast could result in temporary spikes

in claims in coming weeks."

- Friday: September nonfarm payrolls (193k) vs. whisper number around 201k.

     TD Securities expects the September employ number "to rise 180k, but

highlight the risk of a downside surprise in headline payrolls due to the impact

of Hurricane Florence."

     JP Morgan economists posit Hurricane Florence's impact on the data "will be

modest and not very easy to detect in the aggregate national data, subtracting

something in the ballpark of 25,000 from monthly payrolls." JP Morgan estimate

an increase of 175,000 jobs for September while August data stands a "good

chance" of being mildly up-revised.

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

- Oct 01 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, Inclusive Eco Development Conf, GA, Q&A. 0830ET

- Oct 01 Sep Markit Mfg Index (final) 0945ET

- Oct 01 Sep ISM Manufacturing Index (61.3, 60.0) 1000ET

- Oct 01 Aug construction spending (0.1%, 0.5%) 1000ET

- Oct 01 Minn Fed Pres Kashkari, town hall, Minnetonka, Minn, Q&A. 1100ET

- Oct 01 US Tsy $48B 13W bill auction (912796PK9) 1130ET

- Oct 01 US Tsy $42B 26W bill auction (912796RD3) 1130ET

- Oct 01 Bos Fed Pres Rosengren, 60th NABE Annl Meeting, Boston 1215ET

- Oct 02 Sep NA-made light vehicle sales SAAR

- Oct 02 29-Sep Redbook retail sales m/m (0.3%, --) 0855ET

- Oct 02 Sep ISM-NY current conditions (76.5, --) 0945ET

- Oct 02 Fed VC Quarles, "Implementation of Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief

and Consumer Protection Act", Senate Baking Committee. 1000ET

- Oct 02 Fed Chair Powell, 60th Annl NABE Meeting, Boston. 1200ET

- Oct 03 Clev Fed Pres Mester, Comm Bnkng 21st Cent/research & policy conf, StL

- Oct 03 Fed VC for Supervision Quarles, Comm Banking in 21st Cent Conf, StL

- Oct 03 Chi Fed Pres Evans, OMFIF Lecture/U.S. Eco Outlook, London, Q&A 0630ET

- Oct 03 28-Sep MBA Mortgage Applications 0700ET

- Oct 03 Sep ADP private payrolls (163k, 185k) 0815ET

- Oct 03 Sep Markit Services Index (final) 0945ET

- Oct 03 Sep ISM Non-manufacturing Index (58.5, 58.1) 1000ET

- Oct 03 Oct help-wanted online ratio 1000ET

- Oct 03 28-Sep crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w 1030ET

- Oct 03 Phi Fed Pres Harker, "Reinventing Our Communities: Investing in

Opportunity" Conf, Baltimore, MD. 1200ET

- Oct 04 Clev Fed Pres Mester, Comm Bnkng 21st Cent/research & policy conf, StL

- Oct 04 Fed VC for Supervision Quarles, Comm Banking in 21st Cent Conf, StL

- Oct 04 NY Fed Exec VP Stiroh, "Complexity of Culture Reform in Finance", 4th

Annual Culture and Conduct Forum for Fncl Services Ind, London. 0540ET

- Oct 04 Sep challenger layoff plans (13.7%, --) 0730ET

- Oct 04 29-Sep jobless claims (214k, 210k) 0830ET

- Oct 04 30-Sep Bloomberg comfort index (61.2, --) 0945ET

- Oct 04 Aug factory new orders (-0.8%, 2.1%) 1000ET

- Oct 04 Aug factory orders ex transport (0.2%, --) 1000ET

- Oct 04 28-Sep natural gas stocks w/w 1030ET

- Oct 04 Sep Treasury STRIPS Holdings 1500ET

- Oct 04 03-Oct Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

- Oct 05 Sep nonfarm payrolls (201k, 193k) 0830ET

- Oct 05 Sep private payrolls (204k, 188k) 0830ET

- Oct 05 Sep unemployment rate (3.9%, 3.8%) 0830ET

- Oct 05 Sep average hourly earnings (0.4%, 0.3%) 0830ET

- Oct 05 Sep average workweek, all workers (34.5hrs, 34.5hrs) 0830ET

- Oct 05 Aug trade balance (-$50.1B, -$52.2B) 0830ET

- Oct 05 Q4 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast 1100ET

- Oct 05 Q4 NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1115ET

- Oct 05 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, Fncl Literacy/Econ Educ'n Conf, GA, Q&A. 1230ET

- Oct 05 Aug Consumer Credit ($16.6B, $14.2B) 1500ET

- Oct 05 Sep Treasury Allotments (final) 1500ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]