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US$ Credit Supply Pipeline: September Surge Update

With corporate earnings in the rearview mirror, a backlog of corporate debt issuance is accelerating. Total high-grade issuance for the month of August 2023 was only $79.45B -- compares to over $50B estimated for the first week of September alone.

  • Partly seasonal, a return from summer market malaise, coupled with expectation the Federal Reserve is at or at least near the end of it's tightening cycle has reignited expectation of heavy supply. Some sales desks estimated last week the start of September would be the largest in years.
  • Largely so: (Full monthly breakdown below) with
    • Total Sep '22 $105.25B
    • Total Sep '21 $215.635B
    • Total Sep '20 $207.82B
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 09/05 $4.75B #BHP Billiton $850M 3Y +65, $700M 5Y +85, $900M 7Y +100, $1.5B 10Y +110, $800M 30Y +125
  • 09/05 $3.4B #Volkswagen $800M 2Y +85, $50M 2Y SOFR+93, $900M 3Y +105, $700M 5Y +130, $500M 10Y +165
  • 09/05 $3.25B #CBA (Comm. Bank of Australia) $900M 2Y +55, $600M 2Y SOFR+63, $1.75B 5Y SOFR+92
  • 09/05 $3B #ING 4NC3 +142, 4NC3 SOFR+156, 11NC10 +185
  • 09/05 $2.5B #JBS $1.6B 10Y +250, $900M 30Y +290
  • 09/05 $2.35B #Philip Morris $650M 5Y +105, $700M 7Y +135, $1B 10Y +160
  • 09/05 $2B #Codelco $1.3B +10Y +170, $700M 30Y +195
  • 09/05 $2B #SMFG Sumitomo Mitsui Fncl GRP $1.1B 5Y +135, $900M 10Y +155
  • 09/05 $1.9B #John Deere $350M 2Y +37.5, $550M 3Y +52, $1B 10Y +90
  • 09/05 $1.5B *DBS $750M 2Y +53, $750M 2Y SOFR+61
  • 09/05 $1.5B #Unilever $700M 5Y +55, $800M 10Y +85
  • 09/05 $1.5B #Sumitomo Mitsui Trust $500M each: 3Y +100, 3Y SOFR+115, 5Y +122
  • 09/05 $1.35B #MidAmerican Energy $350M 10Y +110, $1B 31Y +147
  • 09/05 $1.35B #Duke Energy $600M 10Y +150, $750M 30Y +173
  • 09/05 $1.3B #Southern Co $600M +5Y +113, $700M +10Y +148
  • 09/05 $1B #Swedbank 3Y +148
  • 09/05 $600M #CSX 10Y +95
  • 09/05 $600M #WEC Energy 3Y +93
  • 09/05 $500M #Mitsubishi WNG 5Y +143
  • 09/05 $600M #Metropolitan Life Global 5Y +105
  • 09/05 $Benchmark UBS 2Y +95a, 2Y SOFR, 5Y +140a
  • Rolled to Wednesday:
  • 09/06 $Benchmark IADB 10Y SOFR+45
  • 09/06 $1B Nordic Investment Bank WNG +2Y SOFR+22
  • 09/06 $Benchmark AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) 3Y

January kicked off 2023 with total of $231.425B high-grade corporate issuance, highest since March '22.
Total 2022 high-grade corporate US$ issuance at $1.284T, well off $1.879T in 2021 and record $2.196T for 2020

Aug'23$79.45B
Jul'23$104.075B
Jun'23$113.195B
May'23$168.22B
Apr'23$122.19B
Mar'23$122.05B
Feb'23$186.7B
Jan'23$231.425B
Dec'22$7.75B; $1.294T total for 2022
Nov'22$115.9B
Oct'22$51.85B
Sep'22$105.25B; $1.287T through Q3
Aug'22$168.5B
Jul'22$100.6B
Jun'22$80.85B; $913.58B first half of 2022
May'22$103.225B
Apr'22$175.2B
Mar'22$258.425B (Highest since May 2020)
Feb'22$92.62B
Jan'22$203.26B
Dec'21$62.2B vs. $52.24B Dec'20 total; Q4 total $344.875B; $782.51B H2 2021
Nov'21$133.875B
Oct'21$148.8B
Sep'21$215.635B; Q3 total $437.64B
Aug'21$97.12B
Jul'21$124.885B
Jun'21$136.35B; Q2 total $478.875B
May'21$159.125B
Apr'21$183.4B
Mar'21$232.62B; Q1 total $618.03B
Feb'21$157.86B
Jan'21$227.55B
2020 Recap:Record $2.196T
Dec'20$52.24B; $796.54B H2 2020
Nov'20$126.83B
Oct'20$111.65B
Sep'20$207.82B
Aug'20$204.50B
Jul'20$93.50B
Jun'20$180.50B; Record $1.40T H2 2020
May'20$270.90B
Apr'20$401.32B
Mar'20$275.48B
Feb'20$107.50B
Jan'20$165.18B

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