US Daily Oil Summary: Shale Output to Rise

US oil production is set to rise in March to 9.716m b/d across the major shale plays, according to the EIA Drilling Productivity Report.

• This compares to 9.696m b/d in Feb and is higher than the 9.693m b/d in the December report.
• Observed crude oil shipments from the US Gulf to Europe are on track to reach 2.2mbpd in February, the highest level since 2016, Bloomberg ship tracking data and fixture reports showed.
• Concerning airline passenger demand, the US – the largest aviation market – is set to rise by 3.7% year-on-year in February.
• US weekly (Sun-Sat) gasoline demand declined by 0.7% for the week ending 10 February, GasBuddy data showed.
• Nigeria’s 650k b/d Dangote refinery is set to receive its first US cargo of WTI in March, according to Argus and Bloomberg ship tracking.
• USD: Intraday ranges in currency markets remained narrow amid Chinese New Year holidays and the close proximity to Tuesday’s US CPI release. However, a late extension of strength for major US equity indices saw some early greenback strength reverse, tilting the USD index into moderate negative territory on the session.
• NY Fed inflation expectations held steady at 3.0% for 1Y and 2.5% for 5Y horizons in January.
• President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday that, “a military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible and executable plan," for ensuring the safety of civilians.