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US DATA: 29 States Saw Payrolls Decline In October, But With Another Caveat

US DATA
USEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America
  • The number of states seeing negative payrolls growth in October jumped to 29 from 14 in September and a three-month average of 20, for its highest share since July 2023.
  • It suggests the surprisingly weak October print (12k vs cons 100k) was more than just a larger than expected weather impact (with six states most heavily affected), although this metric can be noisy having seen 24 states with negative jobs growth in July.
  • However, only two states saw statistically significant declines on the month according to the BLS (Florida with -38k and Washington -35.9k, owing to weather and strike activity), which further advises caution in reading too much into this increase.
  • Within the state-level release, the share of states that have triggered individual Sahm rules continues to broadly flatline, supporting the advice of fading its initial push higher late last year into early 2024. 
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  • The number of states seeing negative payrolls growth in October jumped to 29 from 14 in September and a three-month average of 20, for its highest share since July 2023.
  • It suggests the surprisingly weak October print (12k vs cons 100k) was more than just a larger than expected weather impact (with six states most heavily affected), although this metric can be noisy having seen 24 states with negative jobs growth in July.
  • However, only two states saw statistically significant declines on the month according to the BLS (Florida with -38k and Washington -35.9k, owing to weather and strike activity), which further advises caution in reading too much into this increase.
  • Within the state-level release, the share of states that have triggered individual Sahm rules continues to broadly flatline, supporting the advice of fading its initial push higher late last year into early 2024.