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US DATA: ADP Points To Large Upside Scope For NFPs, But With Disruption Asterisk

US DATA
  • ADP employment was far stronger than expected in October at 233k (cons 111k) for its strongest monthly print since Jul’23.
  • It also followed an upward revised 159k (initial 143k) although that still leaves what was a sizeable undershoot of September’s 223k (at least prior to Friday’s revisions).
  • The press release notes that “Manufacturing was the only sector to shed jobs” even “amid hurricane recovery”.
  • Note that the average gap between ADP and private payrolls has been only a 4k overshoot of ADP over private payrolls but that captures both over- and undershoots with an average absolute deviation of 46k.
  • With that in mind, it still bodes well for Friday’s payrolls report where expectations are currently for private payrolls growth of just 70k, although there will be questions as to how representative this data is to specific hits from Boeing strikes and weather disruption around Florida and the Carolinas. 
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  • ADP employment was far stronger than expected in October at 233k (cons 111k) for its strongest monthly print since Jul’23.
  • It also followed an upward revised 159k (initial 143k) although that still leaves what was a sizeable undershoot of September’s 223k (at least prior to Friday’s revisions).
  • The press release notes that “Manufacturing was the only sector to shed jobs” even “amid hurricane recovery”.
  • Note that the average gap between ADP and private payrolls has been only a 4k overshoot of ADP over private payrolls but that captures both over- and undershoots with an average absolute deviation of 46k.
  • With that in mind, it still bodes well for Friday’s payrolls report where expectations are currently for private payrolls growth of just 70k, although there will be questions as to how representative this data is to specific hits from Boeing strikes and weather disruption around Florida and the Carolinas.