MNI BRIEF: ECB Risks Undershooting Inflation Target -Panetta

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, October 31

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: China Stimulus To Boost Imports - WTO Econ

MNI BRIEF: China Steel PMI Remains Above 50 In October

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: China Stimulus To Boost Imports - WTO Econ

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY471.3 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: EUROZONE SEP UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.3%

MNI: EUROZONE OCT FLASH HICP +2% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE OCT HICP +0.3% M/M, +1.5% Y/Y

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Facing More Internal Dissent And Departures

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US DATA: ADP Points To Large Upside Scope For NFPs, But With Disruption Asterisk

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • ADP employment was far stronger than expected in October at 233k (cons 111k) for its strongest monthly print since Jul’23.
  • It also followed an upward revised 159k (initial 143k) although that still leaves what was a sizeable undershoot of September’s 223k (at least prior to Friday’s revisions).
  • The press release notes that “Manufacturing was the only sector to shed jobs” even “amid hurricane recovery”.
  • Note that the average gap between ADP and private payrolls has been only a 4k overshoot of ADP over private payrolls but that captures both over- and undershoots with an average absolute deviation of 46k.
  • With that in mind, it still bodes well for Friday’s payrolls report where expectations are currently for private payrolls growth of just 70k, although there will be questions as to how representative this data is to specific hits from Boeing strikes and weather disruption around Florida and the Carolinas. 
148 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • ADP employment was far stronger than expected in October at 233k (cons 111k) for its strongest monthly print since Jul’23.
  • It also followed an upward revised 159k (initial 143k) although that still leaves what was a sizeable undershoot of September’s 223k (at least prior to Friday’s revisions).
  • The press release notes that “Manufacturing was the only sector to shed jobs” even “amid hurricane recovery”.
  • Note that the average gap between ADP and private payrolls has been only a 4k overshoot of ADP over private payrolls but that captures both over- and undershoots with an average absolute deviation of 46k.
  • With that in mind, it still bodes well for Friday’s payrolls report where expectations are currently for private payrolls growth of just 70k, although there will be questions as to how representative this data is to specific hits from Boeing strikes and weather disruption around Florida and the Carolinas.